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SEASON 2011/2012 (flat stakes 10/10)

RECORD: 11 won, 5 lost; SUCCESS RATE: 68,75%; UNITS: +51,1; YIELD: 31,9%
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SEASON 2010/2011 (flat stakes 10/10)

RECORD: 66 won, 53 lost, 1 void; SUCCESS RATE: 55,4%; UNITS: +90; YIELD: 7,5%
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SEASON 2009/2010 (flat stakes 10/10)

RECORD: 74 won, 58 lost, 3 void; SUCCESS RATE: 56%; UNITS: +114,2; YIELD: 8,5%
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This is a quick revenge game for Orlando and I simply have to go for it. These 2 teams played on Monday in Boston and the injured Celtics totally humiliated Orlando by winning 87-56! Boston was without Rondo, Allen, Pietrus, Dooling and Wilcox, and the still managed to win by 31 points! How did it happen? Boston played very good defense, but more than anything, Orlando simply didn't show up. They played without focus and effort, and because of that Boston looked spectacular defensively. Magic ended up shooting 24,6%, setting a new franchise low for the worst field-goal percentage in a game.The 56 points they scored set a new Magic all-time low for a single game. So this was not just a loss, it was an embarrassment, and today they have a chance for revenge on a nationally televised game.
Boston will still be without key players Rondo and Allen, and probably also without O'Neal. They caught Orlando off guard a couple of days ago, and today that's not going to be the case. Orlando will play focused and with energy, and I can't see this Boston being able to hang around. On offense, Celtics are very limited with their current lineup and while they can play good defense, Orlando is capable of adjusting. Magic had a hard time bringing the ball up court on Monday, because Avery was constantly pressuring Nelson. Nelson will probably play better tonight, and if he doesn't, Orlando can simply put the ball in Turkoglu's hands as he is very confortable with ball in his hands. Also, how can Boston possibly stop Howard one on one again tonight? Without O'Neal, Garnett and rookie Stiengsma will have to guard him. Stiengsma will get quick fouls, and while Garnett's been always known as an elite defender, he's a power forward (not a center) and he is 36 years old! I really don't think he can guard a focused and determined Howard one on one for long stretches. Boston will probably have to live with Howard destroying them, or double teaming him while letting Orlando's deadly shooters open.

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Miami has to bounce back here after losing their last game vs. Milwaukee 82-91. They had no offensive rhythm and no energy in that game as they shot only 37 fg% on only 9 assists, while having 21 turnovers! It was a low scoring - grinding game that is not very typical for Miami this season. They generally like to push the pace and play up tempo, specially at home. This season they are 6-2 at home, and in 5 of those 6 wins they scored at least 113 points. And they especially like to play uptempo at home against struggling teams, which is something they already liked to do last year as they were 19-11 o/u as a big home favorite. They know that they can simply outrun and outscore bad teams and have some fun, instead of grinding them out in half court oriented game. In their loss vs Milwaukee, defense was not a problem as Milwaukee shot only 35 fg%, so that's not something they will focus on tonight. They will focus on their offensive execution, and that shouldn't be a big problem against Cleveland.
Cleveland is coming to Miami with 5 straight "over" games, and specially their last 2 were problematic as they allowed 114 and 121 points. They lost these games in blowouts, so they will be very energetic and active tonight to try to play better. But it would be naive to expect them to have a great defensive performance. They are 23rd in defensive efficiency and Miami in a bounce back mode will be too much for them to stop. So their energy and focus will probably result in solid offense because I doubt Miami will be 100% focused defensively for 48 minutes. These 2 teams are 2nd and 4th in pace this season, so I expect an up-tempo and energetic game from both sides, which should be enough for an over.

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This is a huge game for Denver as it will be the first time they face the Knicks since Carmelo Anthony forced his trade to New York last season. Melo held Denver in hostage for the first part of last season by his trade request, and nobody on that team enjoyed those times very much. 90% of the news regarding Denver weren't about how they played, but about all kinds of scenarios and speculations about where Anthony would land, who would also be traded with him and who Denver would get in return. Most of his teammates felt like little servants in Melo kingdom, and there was a huge sigh of relief when the whole thing was finally done. Ever since the trade happened, Denver has been very inspired and played like a team that has something to prove. And they certainly have something to prove tonight against the Knicks, lead by Carmelo Anthony! Coach Karl said yesterday: "I think it's one of those games that motivates itself. I don't think I'm going to have to give a really big pep talk". Denver is a team that is in form and goes 10-men deep, without a true superstar. They are very dynamic and present danger from all over the court. They will come to New York full of confidence with a 3-game winning streak, and with all the extra motivaton that this game brings, we should expect them to perform at a very high level. Also, Nene (heel) is expected to return tonight, so they will be at full strenght.
New York on the other hand is in a crisis. They lost their last 5 games and they just can't get their offense going. Their confidence is low, body language is bad and there's just a lot of confusion on the court right now. Nobody expected this team to have problems with offense but that's what's happening.  And if we look into it, it makes sense. This is basically a new team, built around Anthony and Stoudemire. Both are great individual offensive players, but both had great point guards in the past who ran their teams. Stoudemire had Nash in Phoenix, Melo had Billups and Miller in Denver. And there's no true point guard in new York right now. Rookie Shumpert plays point guard, but he's a shooting guard who plays out of position. Douglas also isn't a natural point guard. A lot of times Anthony tries to run their offense from forward position, but that's not something he's used to and it's obviously not working. At this point they simply do not look like a team that can beat a very motivated Denver!

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I'm taking Portland again in a similar situation that we had 4 days ago at New Orleans. Once again they need to bounce back against a weak team, this time at Toronto. Portland lost their last game at Atlanta 92-89 where they shot only 38 fg%, were outrebounded by 6 and allowed 22 fast break points. They are only 1-3 on their current 6 game road trip, so it's necessary to bounce back on these last 2 games at Toronto and Detroit! After the loss at Atlanta they had a players-only meeting to discuss their difficulties so far. They realized they need to be more vocal and hold each other more accountable. This should be very positive at least in the short term. The point is, they don't have chemistry issues. This is a group of guys who get along very well privately, and that's the reason they are kind of afraid to step each other's  toes when things aren't going well during a game. There's a lack of that true leader and that's a problem that will not just go away, but like I said, in the short term, the players-only meeting should have very positive affects because the chemistry in the team is good and guys will respond to it. I expect a spirited game from them against the Raptors, who should be a good matchup for them. Raptors don't have dominant post players, and a key figure to run their offense, Calderon, will be covered by a very good defender Felton. Also, Camby (ankle) and Batum (eye) are expected to play for Portland.
Toronto is a high character team that will fight, but they are just so very limited, specially without their go-to guy Bargnani. Coach Casey put it best when he said after the loss at Atlanta: "It sounds like a broken record, but I thought our guys competed, We're truly missing our players, but that's no excuse. There's only so much you can ask for from certain players. That's not their role."

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What I see here are 2 tired teams with heavy legs, so I can't imagine we're going to see a nice offensive game. New Jersey will play their first home game after their 4-game western road trip with only 1 day off. They played against Clippers on Monday and than had to travel across the country, and lost additional 3 hours due to different time zone. This generally wears teams down. New Jersey is a very limited offensive team who started to rely on 3pt shooting lately due to their lack of quality post presence. That should be a problem tonight because when you're tired, your jump shooting suffers the most.
Golden State will play in a difficult spot as well. It will be their last game of their 4 game road trip, which is successful right now at 2-1. Usually it's hard to play last games of road trips, specially if there's no real urgency to get a win. And it's also going to be their 4th game in 5 nights, so this will not be an easy game for them at all. They are not a great road team, but are coming off of consecutive road wins at Detroit and Cleveland. Without a doubt they had to spend a lot of energy to get those wins, because that's the only way for this team to be successful.
Overall I expect a lot of bricked shots and sloppy play on both sides, and that should give us an under.

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Portland has lost 3 games in a row, and are only 1-4 on the road so far, but I still see them bouncing back tonight at New Orleans. This is a proud and a tough group of playes that know how to fight adversity, and I'm sure they are going to respond.  Their biggest problem on the road was the fact that they played some quality teams (LA Clippers, OKC, San Antonio), and they faced some average teams in tough physical spots where they couldn't perform with their usual energy (at Phoenix in b2b after win vs. Lakers & at Houston in 4th day in 5 nights). Being active and playing with energy is crucial for them, and they should have no problems with that tonight with a day off yesterday. They have a very urgent spot here to get the win since this will be their 3rd game of a 6 game road trip, and so far they are 0-2. They will definitely bring the right effort and that should be enough against Hornets.
New Orleans is playing hard and trying to do the right things, but there's simply not enough quality to beat good teams. They are 1-9 in their last 10 games, and have lost 5 consecutive home games against Phoenix, Philadelphia, Denver, OKC and Minnesota. They also failed to cover the spread in any of these games, despite being home underdog in their last 4. The scenario always seems to be the same: New Orleans plays hard and has an early lead which shows focus. They also win rebounding battle which shows effort. But in the end they lose, which shows very limited talent! If we look at the good teams they played against, none had a very urgent spot to perform. All came after wins and had tricky situational spots. Philadelphia played last game of a road trip, Denver played in the front end of a back to back before playing at SAS the next day, and OKC played their 5th game in 6 nights after a win at Memphis. Still, all these teams managed to focus just hard enough to win and cover the spread in the end. Today New Orleans will face another good opponent and this one will be more focused and determined that the ones they met so far.

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This is a huge revenge game for the Lakers. They will play Dallas for the first time since Mavs eliminated them in last year's Playoffs by a 4-0 sweep. Dallas played great at that time and was very very hungry after years of Playoffs disappointment, and the Lakers on the other hand were a 2-time defending NBA champs who took their opponents a little bit too lightly. It was a big humiliation for the Lakers to go out like that and now they have a chance for revenge. Kobe is probably the biggest competitor in NBA, so he'll be 100% motivated. Bynum and Gasol also have their reasons to be ready to play this time!
I thought the matchup was favorable for the Lakers last season, but they simply couldn't match Mavs' enthusiasm. Dallas played with superb energy and grew in confidence with every game, and at the end it seemed they couldn't miss a shot anymore. But the emotional edge should be with the Lakers this time, and the matchup also got even better because Dallas doesn't have Barea and Chandler anymore. Chandler played a huge role in limiting LA's frontcourt and Barea frustrated them with his penetration all series long. I wonder how Dallas plans to stop Bynum this time? Haywood surely can't do it. I know Dallas has done a nice job in limiting opponent's points in the paint so far, but they haven't yet played against a team that has a great center. And it's not only Bynum, there's another 7 footer, Gasol. Both are in better shape that they were in last year's Playoffs and Dallas frontcourt defense got worse. And there's another guy for the Lakers who is in much better shape...Kobe Bryant. He scored at least 40 points in last 4 games, and Dallas can't guard him this time. Dallas has managed to win some games lately with their defense, but the only good team they beat was Boston, and they are really bad right now. Mavs' offense is still not quite clicking, and their defense will simply not be enough against the Lakers. And the Lakers are also much more comitted on the defensive end under new coach Mike Brown.
The only problem could be the depth of Dallas since they have much better bench. But there can only be 5 players on the court and LA will not play in a b2b. Their main players should be able to handle heavy minutes once again.

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Charlotte is a mess right now. Before the season I was expecting them to fall apart at some point, because they have very limited talent, they are undersized and have no real leaders. It seems that point has arrived. They lost their last 6 games while playing in a very difficult schedule, and that continues tonight. This will be their 3rd game in 3 nights and also 9th game in 12 nights. It's hard to expect this demoralised team to show anything special since their only option to be competitive is to play harder and more enthusiastic than their opponent. They failed to do any of that in their last 2 games at Atlanta and vs. Detroit. Coach Paul Silas has openly criticizied his players after the game at Atlanta, saying it looks like they are simply giving up. And their response? They lost by 18 against Detroit yesterday at home. After the game, owner Michael Jordan gave them a speech for about 5 minutes in the locker room, but I doubt it's going to make a huge difference. They lack tough guys and vocal leaders, and right now their spirit is down, and their bodies are tired.
Golden State has played only good teams so far, and now they finally get an opportunity to get some wins against bad eastern teams. They start their 4 game eastern road trip tonight at Charlote, and they also play at Detroit, at Cleveland and at New Jersey. Golden State is not a force, but they are tough minded and high character team that should know how to take advantage of their opponents struggles tonight, specially because they play with a lot of energy.Their lack of size won't be exposed here against week frontcourt of Charlotte and players like Ellis and Robinson should be able to get to the rim at will. I expect Golden State to outlast the Bobcats tonight with better spirit and energy.

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Indiana's been having a good season so far with 8-3 overall record, and 4-0 at home. This is a hungry, up and coming team that wants to continue to grow after getting to the Playoffs last year, and they certainly have talent to do so. They are very deep, they have a nice mixture of young and experienced players, and they play a physical style that allows them to wins games even when their shot is off. This is going to be b2b game after winning in Toronto yesterday, but I don't think it should be a huge problem, since only Collison played big minutes (38).
Boston also played yesterday and lost vs. Chicago 79-88. This was their 3rd loss in a row, all at home. They are only 4-5, and all their losses were agaisnt good teams, while all their wins were against bad teams. It's safe to say that right now this is not the same Boston we saw in previous seasons. They scored 74, 85 and 79 points in their last 3 games while struggling to find their rhythm on offense. And that was at home with at least one day off between games. So should we really expect them to bounce back in a b2b game at Indiana? I don't think so. Right now they are way past simply trying to bounce back as they failed to do so the last 2 times. They are simply not playing well. Also, this is an old team with key players (not counting Rondo) in their mid-thirties who have a tough time dealing with such difficult spots. Last season, they were only 5-13 ats in 2nd night of back to back, and they are 0-2 ats so far this season. They played at 08.00 yesterday at home in an ESPN game (that normally takes longer) and managed to fight back from 20 point deficit to only 1 at some point, and that took a lot of their energy. Today, they play an hour earlier at Indiana. Allen played 41 minutes, Rondo 40 minutes, Pierce 36 minutes and Garnett 34 minutes. And today they will have to deal with physical Pacers' defense, who allows only 82 points at home, and who already limited Boston to just 74 points about a weak ago in Boston. Yes..these to teams already met in Boston and Indiana won 87-74, but we should't mistake today's game for a typical revenge game for Boston. They are tired and had no time to prepare for Indiana, and Indiana's not going to relax becase they won at Boston. Like I said, this is a hungry team and I'm sure they want to make another statement against Celtics, who still have targets on their backs because of their very successful recent past.

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Houston is only 2-6 overall and 0-5 on the road, but they had a very difficult schedule so far. They played only teams that were in the Playoffs last season with only one exception: LA Clippers, a team that should be in the Playoffs this season. Houston is obviously no powerhouse or anything like that, but they are very fundamentally sound and usually beat teams that they are suppose to beat, even on the road. Last year they were 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS as a road favorite. They play smart, with a lot of movement on offense, which leads to shots in rhythm and a lot of cuts to the basket. They are much smarter than none-playoffs teams usually are, and their biggest misfortune this past 2 seasons was the fact that they play in a tougher Western Conference. They had positive records in 09/10 (42-40) and in 10/11 (43-39) which would be enough for Playoffs if they played in Eastern Conference. They should match up pretty well with Charlotte, because Charlotte doesn't have dominant inside players to hurt Houston's lack of size, and the Bobcats are bad defensive team that can't limit opponent's ball movement, which is one of Houston's keys to play well.
Charlotte should be pretty tired as this will be their 6th game in 8 days.With the limited talent they have, their only chance is to outwork their opponents every single game. But that is imposible to do when you meet more rested and motivated opponent, something Houston should definitely be tonight. The last time Charlotte was in a similar spot was at Indiana, where they played 4th game in 5 nights. They were  competitive in the first half, but ended up being blown out by 22 points in the end. After that game they had one day off, and then played a hard battled game at New York yesterday, so they should definitely have problems tonight. Their main players played a lot of minutes: Diaw 37, Henderson 38, Augustin 37, and also.. the game tonight starts 30 minutes earlier than yesterday.