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SEASON 2011/2012 (flat stakes 10/10)

RECORD: 31 won, 17 lost; 4 void; SUCCESS RATE: 64,6%; UNITS: +115,6; YIELD: 22,2%
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SEASON 2010/2011 (flat stakes 10/10)

RECORD: 66 won, 53 lost, 1 void; SUCCESS RATE: 55,4%; UNITS: +90; YIELD: 7,5%
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SEASON 2009/2010 (flat stakes 10/10)

RECORD: 74 won, 58 lost, 3 void; SUCCESS RATE: 56%; UNITS: +114,2; YIELD: 8,5%
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« Last edited: May 11, 2012, 06:42:56 by K.Barcellan »

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I love backing Boston when there are clear indications they will come out and give their best effort, and I believe tonight is such a night. The series is now 3-2 in favor of Boston, and they have a chance to close it out at home and move to the 2nd round. If they lose, game 7 is in Atlanta!
A fully engaged Boston can still play like one of the best teams in NBA because their defense is the best in the league while on offense they play with patience and always find guys in the right spots. The things that will a hurt them in the long run are lack of rebounding, turnovers, and a short bench, but against Atlanta that isn't really a problem. They will come to this game after losing game 5 in Atlanta by a point. Al Horford was huge for the Hawks in his 2nd game back after an injury, and I'm sure it got the Celtics attention. But regardless I doubt Horford can duplicate that effort with only 1 day off after playing 41 minutes. That was the first game that Atlanta managed to play at least a solid offense vs. Boston, and I'm sure Boston will make some adjustments.
Atlanta has made some progress this season in being more composed when playing on the road. After all they had a winning road record for the first time since 98/99 season, but most of those wins came against bad teams. ATL was only 4-12 against Playoff teams on the road in the regular season, so it's safe to say we're not talking about an elite road team. Not having a true leader has always been a problem for them when facing road adversity, and I have a hard time seeing them survive a game in Boston against motivated Celtics, who are very mentally tought and still have an ability to get under opponent's skin.

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The Spurs have been taking these young Jazz to school so far in this seris, winning by 15, 31 and 12 points, and it's come so far that Utah center Jefferson said this after their latest loss:
“I just think we’re playing against a team that is at its peak. I don’t see nobody beating them. Right now, they just playing well, man. I ain’t never seen nothing like this.”
It's true, the Spurs have played great for a while now as they are on a 13-game winning streak (dating back to regular season), and there's no reason to think they're going to stop now. They are deep, smart, experienced, and take on game at a time. They've managed to play very good defense on Utah's frontcourt it the first 3 games, outscoring them 170-108 in the paint. That must be very discouraging for Utah, which is an elite "paint" team, scoring 2nd most points in the paint in the regular season. That means the Jazz have to score from the outside, and they are one of the worst shooting teams in NBA (27. fg% in midrangers 21. fg% in longrangers, and 29 fg% in 3-pointers). They actually managed to shoot good in game 3, going a comined 20/44 from midrange and longrange, which is way above their usual level, but it still didn't matter in the end. Spurs eventually managed to take control of the game and win by double digits. The thing is that Utah has no solutions defensively for Spurs, and Spurs are making the Jazz take uncomfortable shots all the time. It doesn't matter how prepared and pumped up Jazz come to play, Spurs sooner or later get the best of them. Utah Coach admitted that the Jazz players were pretty down after Saturday's defeat, and I can't see them play any better tonight. The only way this game doesn't end up in a double digit Spurs win is if the Spurs take it lightly, but I don't expect that to happen from a team that's played so well and has so much momentum. Also the Spurs are pretty big on trying to get their players as much rest as possible, so they will try to end this series tonight and get some rest before 2nd round.

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Spurs have a 2-0 lead in this series after winning the first 2 games at home by 15 and 31 points, and I don't see Utah recovering from this deficit. San Antonio is the deepest team in the league with probably the smartest coach in the league, and they are playing in top form. Currently they have a 12-game winning streak dating back to the end of regular season and I see no reason why they would have a let down in game 3. They have Utah on their knees and I'm sure they will try to finish them as quicky as possible and not give them any confidence. The Jazz play better at home than they do on the road, but most of that good feeling and momentum from ending the season on a high note must be gone. Their morale and confidence can't be very high right now after a 31-point demoralising loss. The thing is, they did play hard in that game, but were simply outplayed, ousmarted, outexecuted by the Spurs.
Spurs are the type of team that takes advantage of every opponent's mistake, and they have a good matchup with Utah because the Jazz can't defend pick and roll. Right now the Spurs are getting a lot of points right at the basket, and have also found their shooting touch from the ouside in game 2. They are basically playing their game without any problems because the Jazz are simply not capable of limiting them. And the Jazz on the other hand are very one dimensional offensive team that is very strong in the paint, but has no outside game. In the first 2 games, the Jazz did get their usual number of shot attempts in the paint, but they did not hit them at a high %. San Antonio's found a way to make those shots difficult and Utah is unable to punish Spurs from the outside, as they've shot just 15 of 59 from behind 16 feet in 2 games combined. And that isn't likely to change as the Jazz are on of the worst jump shooting teams in the league from long range and from 3-point line.
Utah's a young team with a lot of key players having no or limited Playoff experience, and the fact they made it to the Playoffs is a big success. Their coach is a Playoffs rookie as well, so I doubt he will be able to come up with some difference making adjustment against an old fox Popovich, specially with this roster that can only play one way. Spurs have all the momentum, confidence and quality on their side, and that should be enough for a good win at Utah as well.

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Chicago won the first game 103-91, but it was a costly win as Derrick Rose suffered a season ending knee injury late in the game. But I can't see Chicago feeling sorry for themselves here, instead I expect them to to do something they've always done under coach Thibodeau...step up and play even harder! Derrick Rose missed 27 of 66 regular season games anyway, and Chicago still managed to get the best record in the league. That's because they play great defense that doesn't really miss a beat without Rose, and because they play like a team on offense. They are very disciplined, patient, hard working and always seem to find a way to get it done. They are a tough minded group that will embrace the role of being underdogs (not against the Sixers but generally speaking in terms of winning the title), and try to prove everyone wrong. How far they can come without Rose remains to be seen, but they should definitely be able to get the job done against the Sixers in the first round!
Philadelphia has the worst half-court offense of all Playoffs teams, and that's the main reason they will struggle in this matchup vs. Bulls regardless of Rose's abscence. They have trouble getting into the paint (23. in NBA), they don't to the free throw line (30 in the league) and they don't attempt many 3-pointers. They attempt way too many long jumpers from 16 to 23 feet, which is the least efficient shot in basketball. The only thing they are really good at on offense is fast breaking, but Chicago will not allow that. Philadelphia is known for their struggles against good teams, and I expect this to continue against very focused Chicago!

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The Spurs are again no. 1 seed in the Western Conference, and must be very alert about the no. 8th seeded Utah after being eliminated last season by the 8th seeded Memphis. But last year was different. Spurs didn't finish the season in good form, Ginobili and Duncan were bothered by injuries and Memphis was capable of playing an elite defense. This year San Antonio managed to rest their key players down the stretch and still managed to play on a high level because of their depth. Their big 3 of Duncan, Parker and Ginobili is healthy and they have a bunch of high quality supporting players, all capable of providing big numbers on a given night. And most importantly, they are not going to take Utah lightly after what happened to them last season against Memphis, when they lost their opening game and never managed to catch up.
Utah managed to sneak up into the Playoffs but it will be very hard to do much more. On the road they are still a pretty average team with a lot of holes defensively and a smart team like San Antonio should be able to take advatage. On offense they can cause problems in the paint, but they have very bad shooters (last in league in 3pt shooting), so Spurs can focus on defending inside and not overplay on the perimeter. The Spurs should get a double digit lead sooner or later in this game and I expect them to hold it and not let Utah back in the game. After all, San Antonio is the deepest team in the league and their reserves are more than capable of keeping the winning margin high.

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It's desperation time for Houston. After sitting in 6th spot in the Western Conference about 10 days ago, the Rockets lost 5 games in a row and fell all the way down to 10th spot. But there is still a pretty realistic chance for them go get to 8th spot with 4 games to go, as they are only 0,5 game behind 8th Utah. So what happened to Houston? They had very impressive 4-game road trip where they beat Chicago, LA Lakers, Sacramento and Portland. Then they came back home apparently feeling good about themselves and lost 2 games against direct Playoffs opponents Utah and Phoenix in games where they didn't seem to play with the right sence of urgency. What followed were 2 games against another team fighting for the Playoffs, Denver, and they lost both of them too. But in the last one they finally started to show the necessary will and competitiveness that is expected of a team fighting to make the Playoffs. And finally, yesterday they played a solid game at Dallas, but ultimately Mavs were too strong down the stretch. So, these last 5 losses were a combination of them not playing with 100% effort in the first 3 games, of them not being able to win in a close game in the last 2 games, and the fact that all 5 teams were quality teams with everything to play for as they are all in the mix for the Playoffs in the Western Conference. Now Houston's back is really against the wall with 4 games to go, but the good news is, they play 3 games against inferior opponents  (Golden State and 2X New Orleans) and a tough game at Miami, but Heat will probably rest some of their stars. So the Rockets still have a chance and they will come to New Orleans tonight desperate to get a win!
New Orleans has the worst record in the Western Conference, but have played very well recently and had the best stretch of their season, winning 6 of their last 9 games. But more than anything, their opponents have taken them lightly and Hornets have punished them with their high character and never die attitude. Coach Monty Williams's been doing a great job with a very limited talent on their roster as they always seem to play hard. But tonight will not be an easy game for them at all beacuse they will meet a hungry opponent! Rockets have a bunch of strong character players and chemistry among them still appears to be good. It's hard for me to imagine them not bringing it tonight. They have to end their losing streak and keep the hopes of making the Playoffs alive.

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Phoenix is still fighting to make the Playoffs, currently they are 9th in the Western Conference, only 1 game behind Houston and 2 games behind Denver. They have a lot to play for and this game is simply a must win. Based on their high level of maturity and professionalism, I expect them to react properly and play with the right focus and effort. They lost their last game at San Antonio in a blowout, so it's time to bounce back and start this final stretch of games (5 of last 6 games at home) on a high note! Phoenix's been playing well since the All Star break and their bench has also started to produce on a high level. They have a lot of players playing well, their chemistry has always been good, and I'b be pretty shocked if they somehow don't show up for this game.
Portland's currently more concerned with evaluating some of their young players than trying to win games. Felton will get a night off tonight, simply because they want to evaluate Smith and Flynn at PG position. Also, Batum is being bothered by injury so he might sit out after playing yesterday in Sacramento. Aldridge is also out. Portland still does play hard and takes advantage of their opportunities, but the quality is very questionable at this point. In their last 2 games they lost against Dallas and Sacramento. They lost vs. Mavs in a close game, but it was close only because Dallas relaxed after having a big lead throughout the first 3 quarters and allowed Blazers to get back in the game. And yesterday, they lost at Sacramento against Kings who came in with a 7-game losing streak. And the only reason Portland was competitive was because they made 16 3-point shots, led by Mathews' 8 of 10 from behind the arc. That's obviosuly not something that's gonna be there for them on a nightly basis, specially not in a back to back road game.

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These 2 teams already played yesterday at Atlanta, where Toronto caught Atlanta off guard and humiliated them on their home court by winning 102-86! Just like Boston 3 days ago, Atlanta also took these Raptors for granted and had a huge let down against what seems to be one of the weakest rosters in NBA at the moment. Toronto is curently without their key players Bargnani and Calderon, and rely heavily on D-league players Anderson, Uzoh and Dentmon. These guys fight for their contracts so they bring their A-game every time they step on the court, and the other Toronto players are generally also high character players who don't lay down easily and they take advantage of every opportunity their opponents give them. But quality wise, this team is not very good, and can do only as much as they are allowed by their opponents. And Atlanta allowed them everything yesterday as the Raptors shot 55 fg%!
Atlanta is currently 5th in the Eastern Conference, fighting for the home court advantage in the 1st round of the Playoffs, so they must be very disappointed to have a huge slip up this late in the season. They simply weren't ready to play and paid the price for it. But the good thing is, they have a chance for a quick revenge, and there's no reason to think they can't do it. They've played pretty well in Toronto in recent meetings, going 4-1 su and ats in their last 5 visits there. Also, they've gone 9-2-2 ats as road favorites this season, which shows that they are very capable of winning on the road against lesser teams.

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Philadelphia was having a hard time going into a must-win game at New Jersey yestreday, losing 10 of past 14 games, and what was specially alarming was the fact that they lost against some lowly teams they would normally blow out like Washington and Toronto. After all, they were 18-3 against non-Playoff teams before those 2 losses. So I was very curious to see how they would respond at New Jersey, and they did a great job, winning by 19 points. It was a game they simply had to have after their recent funk put them in danger of actually missing the Playoffs. So coach Collins made some lineup changes, the team responded in a good way, they got a typical Sixer-blow-out win against a bad team, and I see no reason why they should suffer a let down tonight. This team has always had pretty good chemistry, and i think the rumors of players tuning out coach Collins were mostly just rumors. The win should lift their spirits and create a momentum effect for this final stretch of games, mostly played on the road (7 of 9 games left on the road), but at the same time against mostly beatable opponents (6 of 9 opponents currently out of Playoffs position). There should be no lack of motivation against Toronto, who just recently embarrassed Sixers in Philadelphia by winning 99-78. So Philadelphia basically has an urgency from a standings stand point, they also have a strong revenge factor, and a need to build-off of yesterday's big win and finish the season strong! And they certainly have the personnel that understands the situation and is capable of reacting properly.
Toronto will return home after playing pretty hard and focused  at OKC, and Indiana. Coach Casey was pleased how his team competed, so they won't come to this game against Philadelphia with a strong sence of urgency. They played pretty good for most of the season at home as an underdog, but that has changed recently as they've gone only 2-4 ats in their last 6 games as a home dog. This is a team that can surpise better teams if they are taken for granted, and Philly learned that lesson just last week, so there should be no messing around from the Sixers this time.